Expected-Loss Calculator for Colour Prediction
Enter your stake, how many rounds you play and the odds your app states. The calculator shows what the game keeps on average, how far one session can swing, and how often a session ends ahead.
The numbers it prints, in plain words
The calculator opens on an illustration: a two-way bet that wins half the time, pays 2× and has a 2% fee taken from each stake. You bet ₹100 a round, 60 rounds an hour, for 2 hours. It prints six tiles. Here is each one, with the working for these starting numbers.
- House edge: 2.00%. The slice of your money the game keeps, on average, from every rupee played. It comes from the odds and the fee. It does not depend on your stake or on how long you play.
- Comes back for every ₹100: ₹98. The same fact from your side of the table. Play ₹100 and, on average, ₹98 returns to you.
- Staked: ₹12,000. Every bet added up: ₹100 × 120 rounds. This is not the money you need. A win that you bet again counts again.
- Expected loss: ₹240. The amount staked times the house edge: ₹12,000 × 2.00%. It is the average result of many sessions like this one, not a forecast for your next one.
- Typical swing: ± ₹1,074. The usual distance between one session’s result and that average. Most sessions land within one swing of it, and some land beyond. Maths books call it the standard deviation.
- Chance of finishing ahead: 39%. Of 100 sessions like this one, about 39 end with more money than they started with. Most do not.
Read them in that order. The house edge is the price per rupee. The expected loss is that price times how much you play. The swing tells you how rough the ride is. The chance of finishing ahead comes last, because it is the number that makes a losing game feel beatable.
The longer you play, the less luck matters
A short session can go either way. A long one leans on the average. The table puts two of the illustrations side by side at ₹100 a round with a 2% fee: the two-way bet (2.00% house edge) and a bet on a colour in a ten-outcome round (6.90%).
| Rounds | Two-way: expected loss | Two-way: chance ahead | Colour: expected loss | Colour: chance ahead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | ₹20 | 38% | ₹69 | 37% |
| 100 | ₹200 | 38% | ₹690 | 23% |
| 500 | ₹1,000 | 31% | ₹3,450 | 5% |
| 1,000 | ₹2,000 | 25% | ₹6,900 | 1% |
| 5,000 | ₹10,000 | 7% | ₹34,500 | 0% |
The expected loss climbs in a straight line with the rounds. The chance of finishing ahead tends to fall as the rounds add up: after 100 rounds, every row is lower than the one above it. Winning sessions do not become impossible. They become rare, and the 0% in the last row is rounded and comes from a curve rather than a count, so read it as “almost never”, not “never”.
Use your app’s numbers, not ours
The presets in the Start from menu are illustrations of how such rounds are commonly described. They are not any platform’s rules. We could not read 91 Club’s game rules, which sit behind an account, and we do not make accounts to test. So no platform’s real odds are built into this tool. Yours have to come from your own app:
- Open the game’s rules, “how to play” or help screen.
- For each way of winning, write down its chance, what it pays, and whether that payout includes your stake. Note any fee on the stake.
- Choose My own numbers, or just type over a preset. Enter up to three winning results: a name, the chance in per cent, and Pays (× stake). Pays counts your stake back, so an even-money win pays 2×. Anything you leave out counts as a loss.
- Type the fee (0 if there is none), then your usual stake, rounds per hour and hours.
- Read the house edge first.
If a screen lists the possible results but not their chances, and they are equally likely, divide the results that win by all the results. A bet that wins on 4 of 10 equally likely digits wins 40% of the time. If no screen gives the chances at all, no tool can work out what the game costs, and that is worth knowing before you play.
No system changes the average
Switching colours after a loss, following a trend or doubling your bet changes which rounds you win. It does not change the share of your money the game keeps. Pattern systems tests the common rules over 100,000 rounds, and double after a loss shows what doubling does to a bankroll. For why predictor apps and mods cannot get around this, see hacks and predictors.
Four pages for four questions
- Win Go cost: an hour of ten-outcome colour rounds, bet by bet.
- Big or Small cost: what a two-way bet costs, and what a tie or triple rule does to it.
- Cost per hour: stake against round speed in one table.
- Daily limit: a method for setting a limit before you play.
If an offer asks you to bet a set amount before you can withdraw, the bonus calculator does the same job for that. Every one of our free tools runs in your browser.
What it cannot tell you
- It cannot see inside any platform. It takes the chances you type on trust, so a wrong input gives a wrong answer. It cannot say whether a given game deals fairly.
- Bonuses, refunds and cashback are outside its sums.
- It takes up to three winning results. Any you leave out count as losses, which makes the cost look higher than it is.
- The “chance ahead” figure is counted exactly, by listing every way the wins and losses can fall. Only long sessions on a bet with several payouts fall back on a curve, and the tool marks those figures “≈”.
- It prices a plan. Whether to play is not something it can answer.
More about the expected-loss calculator
Common questions
What is the difference between expected loss and the most I can lose?
Expected loss is an average over many sessions of the same kind. The most you can lose in one session is everything you stake, which can be far more than the average. At the starting numbers, ₹240 is the average for ₹12,000 staked, and a single session can end well on either side of it.
Why can a session end ahead when the calculator shows an expected loss?
One session is short and luck swings widely. With the starting numbers (₹100 a round, 120 rounds, the two-way illustration), about 39 sessions in 100 finish ahead even though the average is ₹240 down. Over many more rounds, fewer sessions finish ahead.
Where do I find my app’s chances and payouts?
Open the rules, “how to play” or help screen for the game itself. Write down each winning result, its chance, what it pays and any fee. If the screens give no chances, no calculator can work out your cost, and customer service inside the platform’s own page is the place to ask.
Can I use the calculator for games that are not colour rounds?
Yes, for any game where you can list up to three winning results with their chances and payouts. Results you leave out count as losses, so the cost can look higher than it is. For games with more payouts than that, the tool sees only part of the game, so treat the swing and chance-ahead figures as rough.
Why is there a box for a fee?
Some games take a small fee from each stake before the round is played. The calculator subtracts it, which is why even a coin-flip bet shows a small house edge. Type your app’s fee, or 0 if it states none.