Bonuses · free tool

Aviator bonus game: the maths of unlocking it

A bonus is worth what it pays minus the cost of betting through it. See the sums for one illustration, and use the calculator for your own offer.

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Find the multiple in the offer’s terms. If a game’s house edge is not published, the result below is only as good as your estimate. Presets are illustrations, not any platform’s rules.

₹1,500you must stake before you can withdraw
150rounds at ₹10 a round
₹45expected loss while you do it
₹55what the bonus is worth after that cost
67%chance you finish with more than you started (ignores running out)
54%rough chance your balance hits zero first

On average, betting through ₹1,500 costs about ₹45, which leaves the ₹100 bonus worth about ₹55. That is an average: the swing is about ± ₹122, and the chance of running out of balance first is not small if it shows above zero. At these odds the bonus stops paying for itself above about 33×.

The same offer at other multiples (₹100 bonus, ₹10 a round)
MultipleMust stakeExpected costBonus worth
1×₹100₹3₹97
5×₹500₹15₹85
10×₹1,000₹30₹70
20×₹2,000₹60₹40
30×₹3,000₹90₹10
50×₹5,000₹150-₹50

Chances use a normal approximation and treat the balance as a continuous walk, so read them as sizes of risk, not exact percentages.

Games that come with a bonus ask for something in return, usually a turnover: bet a multiple of the bonus first. The size of that multiple decides whether the bonus is worth having. The sums below use a ₹100 bonus at 15× and a game that returns 97%, and the calculator above takes your own numbers.

On average, betting through ₹1,500 costs about ₹45, which leaves the ₹100 bonus worth about ₹55. That is an average: the swing is about ± ₹122, and the chance of running out of balance first is not small if it shows above zero. At these odds the bonus stops paying for itself above about 33×. Change the multiple, the stake or the game’s return above and the table of other multiples updates to match.

Nothing you enter leaves your phone, and the calculator knows no platform’s terms: the answer is only as good as the numbers you give it.

Common questions

Can a small bonus be worth taking?

On average it is worth the bonus minus the cost of betting through it, so a low multiple on a game that keeps little can leave something. A high multiple or a game that keeps more can leave nothing. The table above shows the same offer at six multiples.

Does this calculator know the terms of any bonus?

No. We have not seen the terms of any offer. You type in the bonus, the multiple and the game’s odds, and the answer is only as good as those numbers. Take them from the offer itself and from your app.

What is the break-even multiple for a bonus?

It is the multiple above which unlocking the bonus costs more than it pays, on average. For a multiple that applies to the bonus alone it is one divided by the game’s house edge, so a game that keeps 3% breaks even at about 33×.

What return should I use for a crash-style game?

Use the figure your own app states. A return of 97% is often quoted for games of this type, which means the game keeps 3%, but copies can return less. Type your app’s figure into “My own house edge” as 100 minus the return.

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